HorseGraphs.com

Monday 5 March

A superb day yesterday with a profit of 12 points on the day thanks to the top-rated horse Livingonaknifedge winning the 4.50 at Bangor at 8/1. We were right to oppose the morning favourite Our Jasper who seemed to flounder in the conditions - but gave a little back on the place lay when it came home third. Thanks for your e-mails of support - much appreciated.

Three of the last four top-rated horses have won at 25/1, 8/1 and 3/1 with the other one second at 10/1. Those of course are SP's - the prices on Betdaq have been substantially better - Cinematic - the 25/1 winner, was freely available at around 40/1 before the off on Thursday.

After a successful weekend over jumps we are back to the all-weather for the HorseGraph on Monday and the 3.30 at Lingfield.

A morning comparison between the Betdaq prices and the HorseGraph suggest there are no lay bets today so we will concentrate on the win market and the top-rated horse Muktasb looks interesting. This one has been running consistently well on my ratings under a variety of different jockeys - is now dropped 2lb by the handicapper and has the huge bonus of Neil Callan back onboard. On the negative side he is a horse that often seems to find trouble, hasn't got the ideal draw in 7 and certainly isn't the easiest to win with but Callan is the right man to coax a victory and this one has already been nibbled at from 7 to 6.5 on the win market.

We'll play on three others to support the main bet. Thoughtsofstardom and Lady Hopeful both get good ratings and hopefully both will be at double figure odds whilst The Fisio is trading as favourite - but at 5.5 - so it's an open looking race. 

Recommended Bets
2 point win Muktasb
1 point win The Fisio
1 point win Thoughtsofstardom
1 point win Lady Hopeful

Sunday 4 March

Orcadian, the top-rated in the race, couldn't have won more impressively at Newbury yesterday, winning by 17 lengths from the second rated French Saulaie. Blaeberry spoilt the party a little and made 7.5 points difference to the profit figure on the day. However, with a race profit of 3.6 points - it was a good afternoon's work.

Very limited choice on Sunday with Huntingdon (and now Clonmel) being claimed by the weather - but we are going to get stuck into the 4.50 at Bangor which has now been reduced to seven runners with the defection of top weight Paperprophet and Rare Conincidence.

The first, and most striking observation of the HorseGraph is the poor rating of favourite Jaspers Lad. At face value he certainly looks the 'form' horse of the race - with a couple of 1's next to his name and his trainer Donald McCain continues in great form, when you dig a little deeper he could be vulnerable here. He put up a game performance to beat Thunder Rock by a neck at Catterick last time out and a rise of nine pounds looks very harsh.

I am going to lay him on both the win market and place market - though bear in mind that on exchange betting - the original place terms (ie: in this race 1,2,3) still stand in the event of non runners - so we'll lose on the place lay if he finishes third.

There's not a lot to split Livingonaknifedge and Gardasee who are trading on Betdaq at odds of 6.5 and 10 respectively and they will give us plenty of interest on the win market. I would be very sweet on Gardasee if not for the fact that this is his first race since last year's Cheltenham Festival but that fact is very much built into the prices.

Recommended Bets
1 1/2 point win Livingonaknifedge
1 1/2 point win Gardasee
LAY Our Jasper to win 1 1/2 points
PLACE LAY Our Jasper to win 3 points

Saturday 3 March

We came within three quarters of a length of landing the second consecutive big-priced top-rated winner when Parkview Love was second at 10/1 in the finale at Wolverhampton on Friday. Fortunately, we got the place lay right on morning favourite Lil Najma who was only seventh. So a profit of a point on the day and thankfully none of Thursday's profits went back !!

The race planners took a bit of a gamble scheduling no all-weather racing today - Southwell is off - but the other meetings survive - however the ground is likely to be testing.

We head to Newbury where the HorseGraph for the 3.50 race has an interesting shape to it. The horses higher in the weights definitely seem to have the advantage.

Top-rated is Orcadian who is currently trading at Betdaq at around 4.1. His trainer, James Eustace, is better known for his flat exploits - but his last jumps runner won by 21 lengths and Orcadian is unquestionably the class horse of the race. He certainly has an easier task than last time out when he was 9th to Heathcote in the Tote Gold Trophy - run over course and distance. The handicapper has dropped him 1lb after that effort.

We're going to recommend a couple of place lays in this race - Blaeberry and Picot De Say are trading at short enough odds and have poor enough ratings to tempt me in.

French Saulaie and rank outsider of the field Dalaram are both win bets completing Saturday's bet.

Matt Williams from the Racing Post has put together an excellent Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide with some excellent strategy for exchange trading. It prints off in 8 pages and is well worth the paper !! CLICK HERE to download now.

I was interested to read this week about Ray Atkin's account of how he was caught out by a 'trap bet' on Thursday to considerable cost. It's a salutary lesson to all us exchange players in the fastest finger race and is easily done. Fortunately, Ray steadied the ship yesterday and you can read his excellent daily blog by CLICKING HERE

Recommended Bets
2 point win Orcadian
PLACE LAY Blaeberry to win 3 points
PLACE LAY Picot De Say to win 3 points
1 point win French Saulaie
1/2 point win Dalaram

Friday 2 March

Well we hit the jackpot on Thursday with a 40/1 top-rated winner !!! Cinematic, who was trading at a morning 43 on Betdaq, came with a great late run to beat the favourite Augustus John who continues to disappoint punters. I ended the day with a profit of 36 points which mops some of the recent poorer days and I hope you managed to get on. Thanks for the comments and feedback yesterday.

I am not quite sure how you follow a 40/1 winner but we'll do our best on Friday when the featured HorseGraph race is the 5.30 at Wolverhampton.

The first obvious bet looks a lay of likely favourite Lil Najma, who, whilst winning well over course and distance last time out looks set to be poor value and she is heading up the weights pretty rapidly.

Parkview Love should go off at decent odds and is the top-rated horse. Whilst he is hard to win with - he can give us a good run for our money. Mine The Balance had me crying in my beer when getting beaten a short head at Lingfield last time out at good odds. He again gets a good rating and goes into the mix.

Mistral Sky and Flying Bantam are also well-rated and are included in today's staking plan.

Recommended Bets
PLACE LAY Lil Najma to win 4 points
1 point win Parkview Love
1 point win Mine The Balance
1/2 point win Mistral Sky
1/2 point win Flying Bantam

Thursday 1 March

For the second time this week we are taking on the former Aidan O'Brien trained runner Augustus John. He was beaten at odds-on when second on his handicap debut at Wolverhampton on Monday and has now been a beaten favourite in three of his last four starts. This is also a much tougher contest than on Monday and we'll go for the place lay in the 5.00 at Lingfield. He is currently trading at 1.43 on the Betdaq market which is well worth laying.

For the win bets we are playing at good odds today. Cinematic is surprisingly highly rated - and available at a very juicy 44. That will cancel out a few losers !!

Street Life, First Friend and Makai are three others we'll add in at big prices and go for a separate win bet on Red Birr who is the current second favourite.

Recommended Bets
PLACE LAY Augustus John to win 4 points
1 point win Cinematic
1/2 point win Street Life
1/2 point win First Friend
1/2 point win Makai
1 point win Red Birr