HorseGraphs.com

Thursday 15 March

Thank goodness for the 4.10 at Taunton on Monday !! No luck so far at Cheltenham and a very disappointing race yesterday where several of 'ours' were backed including the top-rating Copsale Lad but never even got into the race.

Sorry for the late update today but there's plenty of time to put bets on as the HorseGraph focuses on the final race at Cheltenham - the 5.20.

Just the 24 runners today and we have an interesting top-rated horse in Oscar Park who has already been nibbled at on Betdaq from 30 into 24. There's not a lot in the form book to recommend his chances but he has recorded some encouraging figures on my system.

For the 'support' bets today Rhinestone Cowboy, the second-rated, must be included. He's been reasonably steady at 14 and the drying ground is definitely in his favour.

Horses 6, 10, 11 and 16 are also 'above the line'. That's Material World, Hirvine, Monolith, and Arrayou at current respective odds of 17,29, 10.5 and 58.

Recommended Bets
2 point win Oscar Park
1 1/2 point win Rhinestone Cowboy
1 1/2 point win Monolith
1 point win Material World
1 point win Hirvine
1/2 point win Arrayou

Wednesday 14 March

Frustratingly we drew the line just above the winner yesterday, Gaspara, who fairly romped home. That was some performance especially coming after her success at Sandown on Saturday.

We've picked an easier race today (!!!!) the 28 runner Coral Cup to get stuck into and as you can see from the HorseGraph horse 10 Copsale Lad is nicely top-rated. Currently trading at a fairly solid 12 on Betdaq at the moment he comes into this race fresh from an easy success over hurdles at Newbury. He spent last season over fences and was good enough to finish second to Reveillez at the Festival.

He remains potentially well-handicapped over hurdles and the ever drying ground at Cheltenham will also be in his favour.

The current favourite at 10 on Betdaq Mister Hight also gets a good rating and is likely to make a bold bid under Ruby Walsh.

Those two will be our main plays of the day but in such an open race there are several others we will include in the staking plan for low stakes.

Horses 8,9,11,17,21 and 28 are all 'above the line' and these include two Gary Moore trained runners Verasi and Nation State.

Oulart showed his first sign of form for some time and is interesting at around 26 while if Mahogany Blaze or Turtle Soup win they will see us right for the week at respective odds of 70 and 95 !!! All Star is a little more sensible at around 17.

Recommended Bets
2 point win Copsale Lad
1 1/2 point win Mister Hight
1 point win All Star
1 point win Verasi
1 point win Oulart
1 point win Nation State
1/2 point win Mahogany Blaze
1/2 point win Turtle Soup

Tuesday 13 March

Well the big day has arrived - more from Cheltenham in a mo - but we started Festival week in the best possible fashion with a 9/1 winner - Viscount Rossini - the top-rated horse on the HorseGraph in the 4.10 at Taunton. So we made a profit of 14.5 points on the day and more importantly have a little bit up our sleeves for the tough week ahead.

For our first Cheltenham HorseGraph we are having a look at the 5.20 on Tuesday - the Fred Winter Juvenile Novices' Handicap Hurdle over 2m 110y. Firstly, on the cosmetics - you will notice that I have replaced the horse names with their racecard number - there are too many horses to make the names legible !

Considering the competitive nature of the race the HorseGraph gives quite a strong pointer to the chances of Alan King's Pouvoir. This one fairly skated up on soft ground at Kempton last time and is potentially well treated on his handicap debut. He is trading at around 6.2 currently on Betdaq.

We'll also play on racecard numbers 2,3,6 and 15. That's Ned Ludd (45), Pancake (14), Junior (33), and Madroos (16) with their respective current odds in brackets.

Good luck !

Recommended Bets
2 point win Pouvoir
1 point win Ned Ludd
1 point win Pancake
1 point win Junior
1 point win Madroos

Monday 12 March

Apologies for the later than normal update today - have had a busy pre-Festival workload. A few readers have asked about the update times each day. Generally I always aim to post before the first UK race and try to have the HorseGraph online between 11am and 12 midday.

We will cover a Cheltenham Festival race every day this week on the HorseGraph service.

A very nice winner on Sunday with Gidam Gidam. The three horses we selected were 1st, 2nd and 3rd with a circuit to go and it was Gidam Gidam who stayed on well to give us a profit of 1 1/2 points on the day.

Today's race is the 4.10 at Taunton where Manor Law makes me slightly nervous. He's over from Ireland but has shown little on the racecourse to merit any kind of decent rating, however is trading as second favourite (although now starting to drift) on Betdaq. I'm not going to get involved with this one as it is potentially a dangerous lay so for the purposes of the staking plan we'll focus on the win selections.

Viscount Rossini, a recent 25-1 Leicester winner gets the top graph and looks good value at 9.3. We're also going to play on Another Gale (26), Ember Dancer (9.5) and Compton Star (4.8) in the hope of starting Cheltenham week in good style.

Recommended Bets
2 point win Viscount Rossini
1 point win Another Gale
1 point win Ember Dancer
1 1/2 point win Compton Star

Sunday 11 March

We landed the place lay on Wild Pitch on Saturday when it was well beaten. It was also quite a drifter on Betdaq just before the off. No luck with the win bets - but we finished the day 1/2 point up on the recommended staking plan.

We head to Market Rasen today for the HorseGraph which comes in the 4.20 race. The top two on the card are both non runners.

We are just going to concentrate on win bets today - on the three 'above the line' horses Witch Wind, Model Son and Gidam Gidam.

Witch Wind is now 5.3 on Betdaq and looks strong in the market - he was matched as high as 6.7. He was set a hard task in the class one Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock last time out and was a well beaten fifth of six but this is much more his class and he can continue to progress in this event. He is rated nicely clear on the graph.

Model Son and Gidam Gidam are both trading at around 9 in the market and both are also taking a drop down in class and are good support bets.

Recommended Bets
3 point win Witch Wind
1 point win Model Son
1 point win Gidam Gidam

Saturday 10 March

The second-rated Inch High (8 at the off) came to our rescue at Ayr yesterday for a profit of 1.1 points on the day. As it turned out, the decision to place lay Or De Grugy was the wrong one however, as the alternative was to have a bigger win bet on the same horse - the difference was about the same.

Hopefully, we are saving the best until last today as the HorseGraph comes in the final race at Wolverhampton at 5.40. I can't be having the favourite Wild Pitch at all in this race and will be place laying him. He is currently trading at around 1.7 on the Betdaq place market. There's no denying he was impressive when sauntering to a 7 length success over course and distance on his last start - but he had gone unpenalised for that success after previously winning an apprentice race and the handicapper may have caught up with him at last today. He's up a hefty 11lb in the weights and this is a better class race.

For the win bets it's tight at the top between Nawamees, Billich and Jeepstar with the nod just going to Nawamees but we will be including all three in today's staking plan. Nawamees is hard to win with but often placed and Ryan Moore takes the ride again.

Billich is second favourite after a good comeback run at Lingfield when a neck second to Night Cruise and he should be on top form today. Jeepstar (currently trading at around 20) is more speculative but looked to find the two mile trip too far at Lingfield last time. He had previously run a sound race at Kempton and stepped back in distance is a good price.

Recommended Bets
PLACE LAY Wild Pitch to win 5 points
2 point win Nawamees
1 1/2 point win Billich
1 point win Jeepstar

Friday 9 March

I was delighted with yesterday's result. The top-rated Seribase ran a cracker for a horse that was trading at 35 in the morning on Betdaq and finished third (18/1 SP) to claim our place part of yesterday's bet. We also had two points on the winner Jericho III for a profit on the day of 10.2 points.

Today's HorseGraph is the 3.35 at Ayr which has a quite obvious pointer to the chances of Or De Grugy who is rated well clear of his rivals. He is only average and indeed still a maiden over hurdles but this is a case of a moderate horse looking extremely good in a very poor field. At face value the current odds of 5 look generous and I would be looking to have a fairly major bet if not for one factor - the ground. It's heavy at Ayr today and the evidence suggests this horse is best on good ground. If it was good today - I'd be looking at around a 6 point win - but instead I am going to play a strategy which you may consider to be slightly eccentric !!!

My take on this horse is that he will either win - or get so bogged down in the ground that he will be out with the washing - I don't think there is any middle ground (excuse the pun). The benefits of exchange betting are that it allows the punter so many more options and I am going take full advantage of them today by recommending a win bet, and a place LAY insurance on the same horse. So we still want him to win, as the graph suggests he will - but if he does flop - we'll cover the stake - unless of course he finishes second or third.

Inch High does have form in heavy ground and gets a good rating, whilst Celtic Empire is big enough odds to include as a bet without doing much damage.

Recommended Bets
3 point win Or De Grugy
PLACE LAY Or De Grugy win 3 points
1 point win Inch High
1/2 point win Celtic Empire

Thursday 8 March

We're back to the jumps today which might not be a bad thing judged on the last couple of days all-weather results. No excuses yesterday - just wrong.

Today's HorseGraph is the 3.50 at Wincanton and the top-rated will be a massive price. Seribase is currently trading at around the 35 mark on Betdaq which looks way too overpriced. You just get the feeling that this horse is a lot better than he has shown to date. He won on soft ground in France last season and has been dropped a little more in the handicap after his two UK starts when finishing halfway down the field on both occasions. Trainer Philip Hobbs is also starting to hit top form. I'll be wanting to trade him on the win and place market.

Jericho III is hard to assess but I much prefer him to the David Pipe trained favourite Raslan. Jericho III is returning to hurdles after a long campaign over fences, he is now a ten-year-old but is potentially well handicapped here and trained by Venetia Williams who can do little wrong.

Indian Star is even bigger odds than Seribase but pops up above the line so we will include him.

Recommended Bets
1 1/2 point win SERIBASE
1 1/2 point place SERIBASE
2 point win JERICHO III
1/2 point win INDIAN STAR
1 point place INDIAN STAR

Wednesday 7 March

The bubble burst on Tuesday when we managed to achieve the sorry feat of the four win bets finishing 2nd (13/2), 3rd (9/1), 4th (14/1) and 5th (16/1) - in poker terms one off the straight and unfortunately the ace turned out to be the joker in the shape of Egyptian Lord who defied his poor rating on the HorseGraph. The loss on the day was 9.7 points.

So we are out on the recovery road today and today's HorseGraph in the 2.00 at Lingfield (horses 9 and 10 are non runners) has a fairly obvious shape to it with three horses rated fairly well clear.

The top-rating is Liberty Run, trading around 4.7 favourite at the moment on Betdaq. He takes a drop in grade to claiming company after running reasonably well in handicap company.

Monets Masterpiece (5.9) and Casablanca Minx (11.5) are the two other win bets.

Recommended Bets
2 point win LIBERTY RUN
1 1/2 point MONETS MASTERPIECE
1 1/2 point win CASABLANCA MINX

Tuesday 6 March

Oops - we did it again !!! Five winning days in a row now. Although The Fisio went off the 9/2 favourite he was trading substantially better on Betdaq just before the off at 6.4 - 20% better. That was enough to give us a 1.4 point profit on the day despite the lacklustre run from the top-rated Muktasb.

Today's HorseGraph is the 2.10 at Southwell and we'll get chance to play at some tasty odds as we try and make it six winning days in a row. The wins bets will be covered by a place lay on current favourite Egyptian Lord - trading around 1.8 on the place market on Betdaq.

We've taken on a few horses in recent days that seem to have been harshly treated by the handicapper after their most recent start and Egyptian Lord looks another shining example. He's been hiked up 9lb for a recent course and distance success where my figures weren't even that impressive.

Kempsey is the top-rated but very weak in the market - a decent amount of money was traded at 12 but then the layers pushed him out to 17 - however that's starting to be trimmed back now. His effort at Kempton last time was good enough to win this.

Cerebus and Princess Cleo will both run well at good odds according to the figures and Stoneacre Boy has a more obvious chance after his good course and distance second last time out.

Recommended Bets
1 1/2 point win KEMPSEY
1 1/2 point win STONEACRE BOY
1/2 point win CEREBUS
1/2 point win PRINCESS CLEO
PLACE LAY EGYPTIAN LORD TO WIN 5 points