About The Graphs

Each day I will supply a HorseGraph and discussion based around one carefully selected race.

Whilst the formula to calculate the ratings themselves is complex - the end result (the graph) is presented in a very easy to read format and the recommended bets are given on a simple scale of 1-10 points and will either be backs or lays.

For the purposes of transparency of record keeping we will record the price of the given selections 5 minutes before the race on the Betdaq Exchange.

The ratings are primarily based around current form and time. In very simplistic terms - the fastest horse wins every race !! - not the horse with the best jockey, or lowest weight so it makes sense to focus a ratings algorithm around time.

Each horse is given a final probability percentage of winning the race. In the six horse race example above each horse is allotted 16.6% to start with by the computer with the ratings adjusted as all the factors are taken into account. The yellow line marks the level if all horses were exactly equal. Anything above the line has a better than average chance of winning the race anything under a below average.

So, armed with this information - and Betdaq's prices we will be making a betting recommendation on the race - the backs will focus on horses above the yellow line - lays those below. Usually there will be only one bet per race - but sometimes two or even three depending on the set of circumstances.

Good luck - please feel free to e-mail me if you have any questions about HorseGraphs using the link on the left.

David

Comments

[Ray]

Hi David,
Very interesting stuff, I will take a look every day to see how your ratings work out. Good Luck.
Ray

[humble]

Looks intresting i will also be looking in to see how you do.thanks

[Joanne]

Yes, does look interesting.

It's similar to the pro trader/layer from africanbettingclan.com

Makes very big profits and hope you follow suit.

Good luck.

[Roy]

Hi David

This is a tremendous blog mate. I'm a big fan of Edward Tufte, and I reckon you're a shining example of someone making a complex idea seem very simple by using graphics perfectly.

Can I just ask one question mate - what are 'points' in all the discussion - I take it you mean a unit of currency? Is a 'point' just the amount a punter feels comfortable wagering? I mean, would a point to my Grandad be £2, but £10 for me?

[David Stewart]

Hi Roy

Many thanks for your kind note, and I am glad you like the service.

Your explanation of points is absolutely correct - it's simply a way of quantifying the stake and the relative bets on a day. The amount bet per point is obviously down to what individuals feel comfortable with.

Best Wishes
David

[stephen]

Hi David,
Very interesting stuff, I will take a look every day to see how your ratings work out. Good Luck.

steve

[Vince]

Hi David,
I have been following your tips with great interest and success. I am also interested in your new service, but feel it is a bit expensive. Will the new service be along the same lines as the free one, but a stronger bet ? What sort of profit are you expecting from this service
Vince