HorseGraphs.com

Wednesday 31 January

A good day yesterday thanks to the success of Wahoo Sam who was chased home by another of our bets Kabis Amigos who ran a great race at good odds. Great feeling when two of your horses battle out the finish even though the second would have been a more profitable result :) Wahoo Sam was well-backed and I had chat with Russ Wiseman (Betdaq Exchange Views) this morning and we both couldn't remember a weekday Tuesday when there wasn't a big meeting that attracted so many major betting plunges.

We head to Lingfield today for the HorseGraph in the 4.00 race - a competitive 11 runner event, where four horses stand out. At the other end of the scale both Play Up Pompey and Night Groove are prospective lays - but too big a price to tempt me. I'd rather play positive in this race and stake in such a way on the top four that we secure a profit no matter which one wins. They are after all very closely rated.

The Betdaq prices at the time of writing closely tally with the graph with Earl Kraul and Rowan Warning disputing favouritism. That leaves a reasonable price on recent Wolverhampton winner Lobengula and, in particular, Camp Attack at around 16 who disappointed at Kempton last time out. We'll got for the main profit on Lobengula and Camp Attack with saver insurance bets on the other two.

Recommended Bets
2 point win LOBENGULA
1 1/2 point win EARL KRAUL
1 1/2 point win ROWAN WARNING
1 point win CAMP ATTACK

Tuesday 30 January

The decision to take on the favourite yesterday was the wrong one. Not much more to add to that I'm afraid !

We're going to Southwell for today's HorseGraph in the 4.30 race where Picador is a non-runner. Dudley Docker is currently trading as favourite on Betdaq at around 4.3 but looks well worth opposing and I will be laying him in this race.

I'm also backing the three horses with the best figures - Wahoo Sam (at 4.6), Activity (at 6) and Kabis Amigos at a more speculative 12.5. This one has a long absence to overcome and is making his all-weather debut so big question marks but has reasonable turf form to suggest he is very well treated here.

Recommended Bets
2 point win Wahoo Sam
1 1/2 point win Activity
1 point win Kabis Amigos
LAY Dudley Docker to win 2 points

Monday 29 January

An easy win yesterday for the well-supported favourite Lopinot in our featured race.

Today's HorseGraph is the 1.50 at Lingfield which has been reduced to just six runners with Catspraddle and Wotavadun being non runners.

Night Prospector is currently trading at 2.23 on Betdaq - with two horses rated above it - that's a price that tempts us in for the lay. He seems really quite solid in the market having been matched at an earlier 2.44 but on form and figures it's hard to get too enthusiastic. The drop back to five furlongs should certainly help - and don't be put off by jockey Tolley Dean who won twice on him within the space of four days at the back end of last year. However, it looks a case of him going off the boil recently - possbly has had too much racing for the time being and didn't show a great deal of sparkle at Southwell last time out.

I much prefer the chances (and the odds) of second best Succeed who is trading at around 4.1 currently. She comes from a stable in good form and William Buick - who is well worth his seven pound allowance - gets the ride for the first time. She was well backed before ending a losing sequence of 21 when winning at Wolverhampton in December so keep an eye on the late market indications on Betdaq in the 10 minutes before the off.

Recommended Bets
2 1/2 point win SUCCEED
LAY NIGHT PROSPECTOR to win 2 points

Sunday 28 January

A small profit on Saturday in a race that went exactly to plan with the top-three rated being the first three home.  However, Figaro Flyer was well backed before the race and went off at 4.8 as you can see below - Nusoor was flying at the finish but didn't quite get there.

Today's HorseGraph is the 1.15 at Kempton which looks simple, on paper (or should I say graph) at least. The two top-rated clearly dominate and the latest odds on Betdaq point the same way. In cases like this I'll aim to make a profit on the bigger price selection and a break even on the favourite (even though that is the top-rated). It's a less riskier strategy in that we need to invest less points for a break even or better.

However, it is interesting to note Clear Picture above the yellow line (average chance level) so at the current price of around 18 want to play on her as well. She didn't show much on her debut at Goodwood but her trainer Alan Jarvis is in good form.

Recommended Bets
5 point win LOPINOT
2 point win FAIRDONNA
1/2 point win CLEAR PICTURE

Saturday 27 January

A nice confidence booster on Friday with the recommended bet showing a profit of 1 1/2 points. That was thanks to the lay on Deserter who drifted from a morning odds-on and after getting a little bump at the start never threatened.

A truly fantastic days racing in prospect today and a mouth-watering card at Cheltenham.  However, the heavy ground makes things tricky from a punting / ratings perspective and I prefer to play when the factors are a little more consistent.

So it's back to Wolverhampton today for the 5.20 race - where each of the runners have shown extremely consistent figures on their recent runs so hopefully today's HorseGraph will prove accurate.

Indeed, the current Betdaq prices pretty much tie up accurately with the same top three horses on the graph at the top of the handicap.

The two possible lays are too big a price to get involved with - so we'll play on the top three with the view of locking a small, if unspectacular profit.

Recommended Bets
2 point win NUSOOR
1 1/2 point win FINANCIAL TIMES
1 point win FIGARO FLYER

Friday 26 January

Not a great week, so hopefully the tide will turn today. Glasker Mill - who won our featured race yesterday looks a great prospect and it was no surprise to see Henrietta Knight send him straight to Cheltenham for the Royal SunAlliance Chase.

Back to the all-weather today and to Wolverhampton for the 5.00 race. The HorseGraph is fascinating in this race in that I believe Deserter is a very false favourite with three horses rated clearly above him and the trainer of Deserter, Jamie Osbourne, in only average form with 2 winners from his last 21 runners. By contrast Mark Johnston, trainer of Rain And Shade has saddled 4 winners from his last 13 runners.

At the time of writing Deserter is trading at 2.35 on Betdaq and is already on the drift having being matched at odds-on. It's definitely a lay bet for me and I'll take the top-rated Anne Bonney as a win, to improve on her Lingfield debut.

The two newcomers are hard to make any case out for and Stand In Black is a non-runner. It's not normally the sort of race I would get involved in - with little form to go on - but the short odds about Deserter makes for an interesting trading proposition.

Recommended Bets
1 1/2 point win Anne Bonney
LAY Deserter to win 3 points

Thursday 25 January

Today's HorseGraph is the 1.50 at Fontwell - our first National Hunt race since the service began so fingers crossed.

The class act of the race here is surely Desert Air who will take the world of beating if able to reproduce his hurdles form which saw him compete in some good quality races.  He was the winner of a competitive handicap hurdle at Sandown earlier in the season beating Nathos and relishing the same soft ground he will encounter today.

He's traded solidly on Betdaq this morning in the early exchanges and I will back him with reasonable confidence as my only bet of the day.

Glasker Mill is second rated but has a lenghy absence to overcome.

Recommended Bet
2 1/2 points win Desert Air

Wednesday 24 January

We knocked on the door yesterday and it nearly opened :) The top-rated Polish Power came within a head of winning at Southwell just failing to get home.

Amazingly all three of today's meetings have survived the elements and with morning inspections called at all courses it was not looking great first thing.

There's a good punting card at Lingfield and today's featured HorseGraph is in the 2.20 race where two of the better priced runners catch the eye. Both Amwell Brave (8.8) and Serramanna (10.5) are trading at tempting prices on Betdaq and I will be backing both. Amwell Brave stayed on well over a mile and half at Kempton last time and has proved he can cope with the extra distance when fourth at Kempton late last year. Serramanna has been busy at Kempton without winning but shaped well at this track in November when second to Bay Hawk.

Kavi rates very poorly on my ratings so will be laying for a small amount.

Recommended Bets
1 point win Amwell Brave
1 point win Serramanna
LAY Kavi to win 1 point

Tuesday 23 January

The less said about yesterday the better. Suffice to say it would have been more profitable to turn the HorseGraph upside down - with the one horse I didn't think could win the race, Sophie's Dream (7.4 at off) giving me a Kempton nightmare. Conny Nobel was particularly disappointing.

I'm switching to Southwell today for the 3.10 race which, with the exception of Red Wine who has a 1018 day absence to overcome, looks a very tightly handicapped affair.

After yesterday's trouncing I'm certainly not chasing any losses in this race and there are no lay bets today. There's a little bit of value in the top-rated Polish Power who has been trading at a steady 4.8 on Betdaq throughout the morning and I am going to save with a small stake on the second top-rated and favourite, Pass The Port.

With Sedgefield abandoned today and tomorrow's turf meetings in some doubt - it looks as though all-weather will be featuring for quite a while. Good luck today.

Recommended Bets
2 point win Polish Power
1 point win Pass The Port

Monday 22 January

A break even day on Sunday following our nice profit on Saturday. The win selection Show Trial finished second in the 2.20 at Wolverhampton but we recouped the stake with a lay on Inkjet who was a big drifter in the same race.

We head to Kempton Park on Monday for the HorseGraph in the 2.20 race. Briarwood Bear is a non-runner in the race leaving a field of nine. We're playing on three of the runners. Sophie's Dream, currently 7.1 on Betdaq has been coming in after being matched at a high of 9 but the HorseGraph gives little hope to this one's chances and despite staying on over seven furlongs last time out had previously given little indication that this one mile trip today would suit.

The other potential lays are too big a price to get involved with but on the back side both Conny Noble (currently 4.6) and Party Palace (8.5) both look to have strong chances and we'll add these to the betting plan for the day.

Recommended Bets
1 point win Conny Nobel
1 point win Party Palace
LAY Sophie's Dream to win 2 points